Will Bitcoin Peak in October 2021? When to Expect Ups and Downs (ANALYSIS)

Last Updated on September 3, 2021

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Where is the Bitcoin bull market headed? Where and when will it peak? 

Bitcoin has been witnessing a bull market for two months. It was below $30,700 in mid July. That was the result of a bear run that had taken it down from a springtime plateau in the neighborhood of $55,000. 

But the bull run that began in July has brought it, as of this writing, to $47,500. 

As always, the traders and speculators’ question is: where does it go from here? Is this still a momentum play? If so, how high will it go and when will it get there?  

One of the founders of Northstar & Badcharts, Kevin Wadsworth, in an interview with Kitco, said Monday — on the basis of a technical analysis – that the bull will reach a peak in October. 

The bull should take the price “somewhere close to $100,000,” he said. “Anything above that is a huge bonus.” 

He is not specific whether one should expect a plateau or a descent once we get to that point. But he does believe that in October the action will shift to “the altcoins, Ethereum and the rest, to triple, quadruple, and some of them even more than that.”

Cup and Handle Pattern

Northstar & Badcharts is an online subscription-driven advisor that sells itself as “technical analysis for inspired investing.” 

Technical analysis is the discipline that claims to identify opportunities in specific publicly traded assets by the price trends, and the patterns those trends create, such as the cup-and-handle pattern

Indeed, although Wadsworth didn’t use that expression in his talk with David Lin of Kitco, it is possible to see the Bitcoin chart in cup-and-handle terms.

The bear of the spring, the level ground in early summer, and then the rise in late summer have created a cup, which is typically taken to mean that a price range has consolidated. If there is now a brief pullback, putting a handle on the cup, this (according to a traditional technicians’ view) could presage a big upward move.   

Of course, the predictive reliability of technical analyses is not universally agreed.

One alternative view is that any sensible projection of an asset’s value a month from now requires an assessment of the fundamentals: the reasons why people want the asset, whether those reasons are becoming more or less salient over time, whether they are appealing to greater numbers of people over time, and so forth. 

Understanding Crypto Whales

Some experts, such as Dragos Dunica, a co-founder of DappRadar, have in recent days made the fundamental point that there are cryptocurrency whales in the ocean that hold large amounts of crypto, both in the older tokens and in the alts.

These whales, Dunica contends, have an inordinate power to  manipulate the value of a given cryptocurrency. 

Perhaps the sensible way to speculate on bitcoin is to leave aside the chartist patterns and to try to determine what the whales want and when they will act to get it.

Daniela Hathorn, an analyst at DailyFX, approaches the issue in much the same way. She doesn’t expect any quick run-up to the $100,000 neighborhood. She seems to expect, rather, that the whales are content with the status quo. 

Their activity suggests that bitcoin will see a slow growth back toward the level of its springtime plateau in the weeks ahead.